Average seasonal snowfall for the Hartford area at (BDL) where the National Weather Service keeps daily records is 52″. As of today January 12th I have recorded only 4.5″ for this winter. The next 7-10 days temperatures drop off again after a quick warm up today and tomorrow followed by another warm up next weekend. Some model runs have a storm developing off our coast late next weekend with rain changing to snow before the low pressure exists the region. Even this possibility is less than 50% at the moment. So, we will make a run for the 1936 -1937 least snowfall for a winter season at 15.1″? There’s still February and March in which historic snowstorms buried us with feet of snow.

What a 3 months in Connecticut. Wildfires, record warmth and drought like conditions, Oh my! Red flag warnings nearly everyday are top of mind daily. It’s Connecticut not California. So why are we experiencing a long sustained historical dry pattern? The reason: A pattern shift with a stubborn high pressure area parked across the eastern United States. With this huge high pressure in place it has blocked any moisture from coming north from the Gulf of Mexico. Our rain deficit reflects that with 11.5 inches below average from late August. So when will this pattern break and is this unusual dry pattern related to climate change? It’s anyone’s guess right now.
It will continue sound like we’re walking on potato chips for now on our dry landscapes.

Connecticut is warming faster than anywhere in the United States as the average temperature has risen double the average for the lower 48 states. Warmer winters, lack of snow, changing jet streams, warming oceans all are phenomenon that contributes to this rapid atmospheric temperature growth in Connecticut. Climatologists’ projects winter temperatures will increase significantly above pre-industrial levels within 60 years. If that happens the summer climate in Connecticut by the end of the century will be the same as present day South Carolina. Temperatures in greater Hartford would exceed 100 degrees for 28 days a year.

*I’ve been keeping and tracking local weather and data in New Britain for 40 years and found that the yearly average temperature here has risen an unprecedented 5.2 degrees.

Connecticut’s worst ever tornado touched down in Wallingford on August 9th, 1878. This F4 tornado (with an F5) being the highest on the Fujita Scale had the size, power and devastation of one that has the same characteristics of the most deadly tornadoes that rampage the US Great Plains. Winds in the Wallingford tornado were estimated to be 260 miles per hour and being a half mile wide destroying everything in its path from homes to brick industrial factory buildings. Damage was documented to be unimaginable across the entire town. At least 34 people lost their lives and over a 100 were seriously injured in a matter minutes. Unfortunately there were no warnings from the impending storm due to a lack of technology to spot severe weather conditions in predicting the pending doom.

Today we have the technology to forecast an event of severe weather days in advance to prepare for the worst. The National Weather Service has many services available to us on such preparation.

It’s been 75 days since we had over 3 inches of snow way back on December 11 and 391 days since there was a 6 inch snowstorm on January 29th 2022. That’s and incredible snow drought for southern New England. Right now things look interesting as the calendar begins to turn the page into March. A coastal storm which is not on any weather maps at the moment will likely start developing Monday to our south and as it intensifies there could be a swath of snow moving into New England late Monday into Tuesday night. The rain/snow line will likely be in southern Connecticut which a possible significant snow event here in central Connecticut. A possible shovellable and plowable snowfall could be setting up. We’re still 3-4 days out and things could change as the weekend winds down, but maybe, just maybe our first major winter snowstorm may be days away.

We are mercurial and unpredictable as the New England Weather. We are cold as a cold bitter winter day to those who disagree with us. We are warm as a spring day to those less fortunate as myself. We are like a storm at times waiting to tear into someone with rage. But often we are like the sun rays after the storm with love, humor, kindness and a sense of adventure.

I’ve been a weather watcher most of my life. I recall happy times watching changing weather conditions, listening intently to the AM Radio for a potential powerful snowstorm and staying up all night watching the first snowflake to illuminate itself passing through the street light outside my bedroom window. Watching the western horizon in the summer as distant thunder seemed to be gathering the dark cumulus nimbus clouds with tones of black and dark gray.

My eye is always to the sky everyday using my sixth sense to formulate a forecast for my own being which usually brings a smile and a sense of satisfaction.

This post is dedicated to Salvatore Fusco Jr. a true weather enthusiast.

Don’t hold your if you’re expecting and measurable snowfall anytime soon. Weather enthusiasts who may have snow rulers in their yard have likely forgotten about them. To date central Connecticut is over 3 feet below normal with only 5 inches officially measured at this location. Any snow storms need to come in a hurry the next 6 weeks to challenge the lowest snowfall total for a winter season of 13 inches. Over 4 and half feet is our average for a season. The next 10-14 days will have much warmer than normal temperatures with below average precipitation.

I have been keeping climate and weather data in New Britain for 36 years and have never seen anything like this with departures from normal in temperature and snowfall. December averaged an incredible 10 degrees above normal and February to date 4.5 degrees normal. Snowfall for the season is looking like it may not reach a one foot total amount. To date I have recorded only 5 inches of snow with the bulk of it falling two months ago on December 11th with 3 inches. The average winter seasonal snowfall here is 53 inches. Looking at long range weather models, above normal temperatures with continue through February with not much measurable snowfall. At least our fuels bills will get a reprieve with a savings of 20-25% from last year. Mother nature always seems to have away to even the score. So, March and April could make up for the balmy winter days we all endured.

Connecticut is experiencing an unusually warm winter with not much to show in the snow department. Actually, January averaged 10 degrees above normal in New Britain with only one and half inches of snow. The average for January is 10″. There’s various reasons why we’re having a Virginia like winter without getting too technical is the La Nina phase of a Pacific Ocean jet stream is affecting the continental US. Usually a La Nina has a blocking effect for allowing Polar outbreaks to move southward from Canada in the eastern part of the country. Low pressure systems from the Pacific Ocean ride along La Nina jet stream and hit the west coast with heavy rain and upper elevation snow. These low pressure systems move across the country and move in the Great Lakes region giving a general rain pattern for us. Remember: If a storm system moves to our west we are in the warm sector from the counter clockwise wind circulation from the low pressure. The reason for below normal snow falls.

About Climate Change? Yes, there’s a component to that too. For the last several decades the average temperature has been gradually rising. You probably noticed the hotter summers lately.

Next week September will be coming to an end and it will hand off its torch to October when we transition to a true autumnal month. Usually fall chill settles in as the sunlight is chased away by early night darkness. The torch handed off to our tenth month will be “hot” when temperatures have a good chance to rise into the 90’s by the end of next week. Hopefully this mini heat wave will be short lived as more normal weather temperatures arrive by mid October. No flannels, no sweaters, no jackets and no comforters will be a mainstay as mid July rears its ugly head again. So… your attire next week when visiting a local apple orchard and pumpkin patch may have an unusual look as the October dress code will be broken with flip flops, shorts and tee shirts. I feel many will approve.